Liebe Parteien: auf der Suche nach Wählerstimmen?

Nichts einfacher als das, möchte man meinen. Die „verunsicherte Mitte“ wartet auf euch. Fernab von Hetzern und anderen teilweise inflationär gebrauchten Schlagwörtern warten Menschen, die wissen wollen, wie man mit der Asylkrise langfristig umzugehen gedenkt, auf Antworten. Fernab von „Deutschland/Österreich schafft das schon“ und ähnlichen Phrasen. Konkretes. Erfolgsmodelle. Auch auf die unangenehmen Aspekte eingehen, Gefahrenpotenziale identifizieren und auch benennen. Zum Lohn gibt es Stimmen, im Moment macht das nämlich… ja, richtig, niemand.

The West’s role in the rise of the Islamic State

two powerful essays on this delicate topic; to put it in most basic terms: The US (and its allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Quatar) supported „moderate“ opposition groups in their quest to overthrow Assad and ultimately it turned out that many of those where not as moderate at as they had thought.

http://www.thenation.com/article/how-war-terror-created-worlds-most-powerful-terror-group/

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

If it’s really the economy (, stupid), then Putin has been quite successful

„When Putin arrived in office, Russia was just emerging from the disastrous market reforms of the 1990s and the 1998 financial crisis. The new president had no grand economic vision: while he slashed taxes to benefit business, he also renationalised key sectors, starting with the breakup of political foe Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s Yukos oil company in 2003. Nonetheless, unused manufacturing capacity and rising prices for oil, Russia’s main export, helped usher in an era of unprecedented prosperity that Putin is still remembered for, with real disposable income doubling between 1999 and 2006.“

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/06/vladimir-putin-15-ways-he-changed-russia-world

Turkey’s legal justification for its recent attacks against the Kurds and ISIS/ISIL

The official notification by Turkey concerning its attacks against ISIS/ISIL in Syria can be found here: http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2015_563.pdf

Similar to the US and its allies, Turkey relies on the right to self-defence and, more specifically, the„unwilling or unable“-doctrine, as the legal basis for striking against ISIS/ISIL inside Syria. Most interestingly, however, the letter to the Security Council does not refer to the threat emanating from Kurdish fighters but only ISIS/ISIL (Daesh):

The terrorist attack that took the lives of 32 Turkish citizens in Suruç on 20 July 2015 reaffirms that Turkey is under a clear and imminent threat of continuing attack from Daesh. Most recently, on 23 July 2015, Daesh attacked the border military post in Elbeyli and killed a Turkish soldier.
It is apparent that the regime in Syria is neither capable of nor willing to prevent these threats emanating from its territory, which clearly imperil the security of Turkey and the safety of its nationals.
Individual and collective self-defence is our inherent right under international law, as reflected in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations.
On this basis, Turkey has initiated necessary and proportionate military actions against Daesh in Syria, including in coordination with individual members of the Global Coalition, in order to counter the terrorist threat and to safeguard its territory and citizens.

The legal basis for its military strikes against Iraq, then, is the consent given by the Iraqi government:
http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-220_-31-july-2015_-press-release-regarding-the-statement-of-the-iraqi-government-about-turkey_s-operations-towards-the-pkk-targets.en.mfa:

His Excellency called on the Turkish government to coordinate with the Iraqi government about any military operation in those areas, stressing Iraq’s keenness on Turkey’s internal security and its people’s safety, praising the Turkish decision which allowed the use of its airbases by the international coalition to attack the terrorist Daesh organization.

Regarding the attacks against Kurdish fighters located in Iraq, however, the Iraqi government has voiced harsh criticism which comes close to a (partial) withdrawal of its consent, or at least a threat of doing so, denouncing these as „a dangerous escalation and an assault on Iraqi sovereignty“ and calling on Turkey to avoid further escalation and seek a resolution to the crisis.

As a reaction, Turkey has stated that Iraq was not fulfilling its duty to prevent any attacks/not to harbor such „terrorists“. All in all, it seems as if Turkey is stretching the Iraqi acceptance to conduct attacks against ISIS/ISIL and the Kurds on its territory quite far; however, as long as Iraq does not expliticitly withdraw its consent, there is a legal basis for the Turkish attack:

[…] the negative attitude adopted by the Iraqi Government regarding the steps taken by Turkey within the framework of international of law towards the terrorist attacks faced by our country and the operations conducted by Turkey, in this context, against the PKK terrorist organization located within the borders of Iraq has caused disappointment.

Although the Iraqi Government emphasizes its commitment for not allowing any attack towards Turkey from the Iraqi territories, it is clear that this commitment has not been fulfilled and numerous armed PKK militants have continued to harbor in the Iraqi territory for years. Therefore it is not possible to comprehend or accept that those, who cannot fulfill their commitments, do not have the possibility to keep their borders under control, and one-third of whose territories are under the control of the terrorist organization, have taken a stance against Turkey in its fight against the PKK terrorist organization perpetrating armed attacks towards its citizens and security forces.

That being said, although there is indeed a (somewhat shaky) legal justification – in line with those which have been invoked by other states in attacking ISIS/ISIL in the past, the problem is that Turkey does not restrict its attacks against this group. It is obvious that the balance between striking against ISIS/ISIL and, simultaneously, against the Kurds, the most reliable allies of the West and the US in particular, will cause political and, relatedly, perhaps also legal problems in the near future. Until now, however, Iraq would only withdraw or explicitly restrict its consent for military strikes by Turkey if the US allows it to do so (which seems highly unlikely for the time being).

Lastly, here are some good articles on the Syria/Iraq/ISIS/ISIL/Kurds-quagmire:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33747980 (scroll down for some helpful infographics)
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/31/turkey-goes-to-war-syria-rebels/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-conflict-with-kurds-was-approving-air-strikes-against-the-pkk-americas-worst-error-in-the-middle-east-since-the-iraq-war-10417381.html
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/29/whats-behind-turkeys-u-turn-on-the-islamic-state-kurds-syria/
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/28/has-the-u-s-just-sold-out-the-kurds/
http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/4785757/Analyse_Warum-Erdogan-die-PKK-angreift?_vl_backlink=%2Fhome%2Findex.do (in German)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/31/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-idUSKCN0Q52OH20150731

In re Greece: the unresolved mystery of state bankruptcy

Among the many questions surrounding the Greek/Eurozone-fiasco, one that seems to be particularly delicate is that of when a State can be considered as bankrupt. Is Greece already bankrupt? If so, since when? If not, when would it finally be considered to be bankrupt?

A survey of the relevant materials shows that, in contrast to municipal law, international law does not have a clear answer as to when one has to speak of bankruptcy. The easiest definition, also to be found on wikipedia, holds that „Bankruptcy is a legal status of a person or other entity that cannot repay the debts it owes to creditors“. 
In this sense, bankruptcy needs to be distinguished from Insolvency, the latter being present only once proceedings involving the debtor and his creditor(s) have been initiated.
In simplest terms, the common definition of bankruptcy can also be applied to the field of international law. As soon as a State cannot repay its debts, it can be considered as bankrupt. However, things are more difficult upon closer inspection. The entry in the Max Planck Encyclopedia of International Law (written by Jörn Axel Kämmerer) for instance does not contain a clear definition of bankruptcy on the international level but rather shows that it is not settled whether and to what extent the above-mentioned definition can also be applied to sovereign states:

Mere unwillingness, also called ‘opportunistic default’ (…) must therefore always be considered a breach of obligations and, where the creditor is a State, of international law in particular, allowing for countermeasures (…). Whether inability to pay merits a different judgment depends on whether the debtor State can rely on the state of necessity objection (…). Even in the event that such an objection is unsubstantiated, countermeasures would hardly be of any avail and an agreed solution would have to be found in the common interest of both the debtor and its creditors. Whether the State must be incapable of servicing a certain number of financial duties or whether default in just one of them can suffice (as it implies that any obligation in kind might be affected), is an open question (…). It must be borne in mind that even failure to comply with financial obligations attached to State bonds can trigger a large-scale default where ‘cross-default clauses’ apply: other financial obligations are prematurely due in this event, and the State debtor might face majority actions of creditors (…). Likewise, it is unclear if a State can be considered bankrupt as long as its financial means will theoretically suffice for comprehensive debt service in case the latter will probably lead to social instability, as all kinds of service to its own population would have to be cut down. To public international law, a financial crisis matters—and may therefore qualify as ‘bankruptcy’—whenever the concerned State cannot escape from it by its own effort.

At the end of the day, however, as Kämmerer himself (who wrote the MPEPIL-entry just quoted) emphasizes in an article written in German (Der Staatsbankrott aus völkerrechtlicher Sicht (2005) 65 ZaöRV 651), it is necessary to restrict the scope of the concept of bankruptcy to the inability to repay debts, not also to situations when the State is merely unwillinng to do so. Also, as the example of Argentina in summer 2014 has shown, there is no such as thing as „partial default“.
What remains is the often heard (especially in international law) and obviously not really helpful simple observation that instances of state bankruptcy/insolvency will continue to be dealt with on a case-by-case basis, with no clear and general rules in place.
If Greece keeps getting loans from the international financial institutions or fellow Eurozone members, it remains able to repay its debts and thus, technically speaking, cannot be considered as being bankrupt. While it may be deemed as de facto bankrupt for quite some time now, de iure it remains solvent.
This is also where politics preside over law. Germany and the other creditors still follow a policy that seems to be based on the assumption that Greece will – sooner or later – repay its entire debt. Hence the continued rejection of the possibility of a haircut. Behind closed doors, however, it may well be that they have accepted that a lot of money has been lost for good. However, the earlier this is openly admitted, the weaker the leverage to impose any meaningful reforms. If these are indeed as short-sighted as many point out, one may wonder whether the creditors are currently simply trying to squeeze as much money as possible out of Greece in full awareness that their policy is probably not tenable for much longer, i.e. until the final boiling point is reached – whenenver that will be the case.